When you're down 3-1 in a best-of-seven series in the NBA Finals, history suggests that you're toast!!! 30 times this occurrence has happened and 30 times the team who's up 3-1 went ring-shopping for the summer. However, I am here to tell why some would think that a team down 3-1 will have a chance to still win the series.
2012 NBA Finals (prior to Game 5) is 3-1 Miami Heat over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Most suggest that history will take its place and that the Heat will win game 5, thus the championship. Heat fans all over this nation will pretty much want this series to end tonight, just as the whole Heat organization. I am here to tell you why I have some doubt in the Heat winning tonight and possibly the series.
Since 1985, when the NBA implemented the 2-3-2 format, there have been 14 occurrences of a team being up 3-1 in the Finals including this year's series. Of the 13 times this has happened, seven times has the series ended in 6 games and six times has the series ended in 5 games.
I'll focus on 3 of the 13 series that I've mentioned earlier: 1993 Finals - Bulls/Suns, 1998 Finals - Bulls/Jazz and 2004 Finals - Pistons/Lakers. Of these 3 series, these are the ones in which the team with home-court lost the series while being down 3-1. As Game 5 scenarios with Thunder/Heat series in this year's Finals. I'll compare the 3 series from the past with this year's Finals series.
- 1993 Finals with the Bulls/Suns is a little different from the 2012 Finals. The Bulls, which started out on the road, actually won all three games in Phoenix, but lost 2 of 3 at home to the Suns.
- 1998 Finals could be the closest comparison that would favor the Thunder in the 2012 Finals. The Jazz had home-court and lost game 2 at home to Bulls, before going to Chicago and getting smoked for games 3 & 4 before winning a close game 5 to force the series back to Utah. Thunder fans may like to hear this news.
- 2004 Finals could be the closest comparison that favors the Heat in the 2012 Finals. The Lakers we're the clear favors to win this title, kind of like the Thunder was mostly favored to win the 2012 Finals. One problem with this: The Lakers got smoked in 5. The Pistons won game one in L.A. and nearly won game two, before coming home and sweeping the middle 3 games to win the championship in 2004. This is would be the dream idea for the Heat to do in game 5 of the 2012 Finals.
Of the two series that went to game 6's, both of those where ended by historically great shots that will forever live as great moments of the NBA. Home records in the postseason of the team with the home-court advantage combined was 25-5. So the chances that the Thunder could come back in this series is pretty good too. Now the thing with history however could negate that probability
Game 5 could resemble one of these past scenarios, but in order to challenge history, one must win every single game. Could the Thunder win 3 straight games? Of course they can. Will history get into the way of the Thunder's chances? Of course it will......if one doesn't study history, you're domed to repeat it. In American sports over the last 100 years, only once has a team come back from 3-1 hole to win a series: 2004 Boston Red Sox, en route to "challenging history" and winning a World Series Championship for the first time in 84 years. It only takes one time to change history. Just ask the Boston Red Sox....
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