Top 3 for Week 2

Week 2 can be the week that determine how well of a start do teams get off. 16 teams are 1-0, a 75% chance at making the playoffs. 16 teams are 0-1, a 25% chance at making the playoffs. Since 1990, 12 of the 16 teams that start off 1-0 will go to the playoffs while 4 of the 16 teams that start 0-1 will recover and make the playoffs.

1. Bears at Packers: Well the Bears are 1-0 and Packers are 0-1. This is a huge Thursday Night game at Lambeau and this could very well be a huge division win or lost for these teams. The Bears are trying to take a 2-game lead (2 1/2 because of winning one of the two regular season meetings) and for the Packers, being in 4th place in the NFC North wasn't in their plans this season.
2. Lions at 49ers: For the 49ers, last week's game at Lambeau could be the game that puts the NFL on notice: THIS TEAM IS FOR REAL. Dominating defensive performance against the Packers could set this team up for home-field in January. As for the Lions, a very dismal game against the Rams, are looking to show the world that they are not the Detroit Lions of old. Being that this is a Sunday Night Game, what other way to get the world to know your name by beating the 49ers at home after they came off of a dominating win at Lambeau. 
3. Saints at Panthers: For two teams that we're thought to be 1-2 in the NFC South, one of these teams could be last by the end of day on Sunday. With Falcons looking pretty dominate and the Bucs seem to have found their old-school defense, the Saints and Panthers could be in for a uphill battle if they lose. Cam Newton is looking to shake off his performance in Tampa with a performance similar to what newcomer RGIII did to this Saints D last week.

2012 NFC South Preview

NFC South

Reviews are in order of final standings for 2011

1. Saints (13-3): Normally a 13-win season would get you home-field advantage and a 1st-round bye. But last season wasn't normally planned and this Saints team had to travel on the road in order to get back to the Super Bowl. The Saints clearly was the conference's second best team, but was beaten by the actual second-best team, the San Francisco 49ers. This season, with the suspensions of coach Payton and other players, this could be a hard season for one Drew Brees to carry them out of.
2. Falcons (10-6): After being the #1 team in the NFC in 2010, the Falcons fell to Wild-Card status in 2011. This team is a Super Bowl hopeful, but is their Quarterback the same? Matt Ryan hasn't had great success in the postseason and that has to change if the Falcons are looking to go to Super Bowl. The question is, can he make the next step or has he reach the ceiling? The 2012 season is depending on it.
3. Panthers (6-10): One name for sum up their 2011 Season: Cam Newton. Newton by far too the Panthers and the NFL by storm. But can he at least give 60% of what he did last season? If he can, then this team will be something to mess with in the NFC South this year.
4. Bucs (4-12): Talk about a team that went to the doorstep of contending status, to what the heck happened? Yea the Bucs are that team. With a new coaching staff, this team could be in a small rebuild year, but don't worry Bucs fans. This is the NFC South, if history is correct, you'll win the division next season.

2012 NFC South Champion: Carolina Panthers

 

CAR: (9-7)

NO: (9-7)

ATL: (8-8)

TB: (6-10)

Recap: NFC Divisional - Saints vs. 49ers

Saints 32, 49ers 36

Recap:

• 1st Down: Under/Over 300 yards for Drew Brees? If I were to say that Brees went 40/63 for 462, 4 TD's and 2 INT's well you'd say the Saints had to win big out there in San Fran right? Right? Well not exactly, great numbers by Brees but it was the other Quarterback who went toe to toe with Brees. Alex Smith may of had the under in this, but he got the one important thing: THE WIN! Advantage: 49ers
• 2nd Down: Will the playoff pressure succumb Alex Smith's lack of postseason experience? Smith went 24/42, 3 TD's (1 rushing TD) and 0 INT's. Well to answer that question: NO. Alex Smith may have played one of his best games, but this game was the biggest game he's won so far in his shaky career. Advantage: 49ers
• 3rd Down: Saints High-Powered offense vs 49ers dominate defense? - Well lets see, the Saints did score 32 points. Normally you'd tell me that the Saints won this game. However, having 5 turnovers against the 49ers, one could say that the Saints we're blown out. However, with 5 turnovers, the Saints actually had a chance to win the game. 32 points vs 5 turnovers. Advantage: Push
• 4th Down: Outdoors vs Indoors - Didn't factor much in this game. It was in the low 60's and sunny. Perfect weather for any team.

Jed Jacobson/Getty Images

What's Next: 49ers will await the winner of the Giants/Packers game. Either match-up could be great, considering the history of all of these organizations.

4 Downs - NFC Divisional: Saints vs 49ers

Saints vs 49ers

• 1st Down: Under/Over 300 yards for Drew Brees and the Saints? Well this will measure if the Saints are moving the ball against that vaunted 49ers defense. If Brees passes for more then 300, then the Saints have a great chance of winning. However, if Brees is held in check and throws for under 300, then you have to say can the Saints win a defensive battle? We'll have to see.
• 2nd Down: Will the playoff pressure succumb Alex Smith's lack of postseason experience? Well last week, 2 of the 3 QB's who had first time playoff start won. They were also at home, so for Smith this should be good news. However, for Smith this first playoff appearance is in his 6th season. Smith has be left for dead by most people, but winning in the playoffs could re-energize his career.
• 3rd Down: Saints High-Powered Offense vs 49ers Dominate Defense - This game can answer that saying that always get brought up: Defense wins championships and Offense sells tickets. We'll see who's right after this game.
• 4th Down: Outdoor vs Indoor - For the Saints, this is important because the Saints may have to play the rest of their games outdoors. Now as a 3rd seed, the Saints could still play a home playoff game. It's only happened twice in NFL history that a conference championship was hosted in a 3rd place stadium: 06 Colts and 08 Cardinals. Both teams went to the Super. Now on the other side, the Saints are 0-2 on the road under Payton in the playoffs: Losing the 06 NFC title game at Chicago and losing last year to another NFC West team in Seattle. 

Confidence Pick:

• QB: Brees (4) vs Smith (8)
• Defense: Saints (6) vs 49ers (2)
• Team: Saints (1) vs 49ers (3)
• Saints (11) vs 49ers (13)

My Pick: Saints 20, 49ers 23

Divisional Confidence Picks

This format is simple: I'll use 3 categories (Overall Team, Quarterback, and Defense) and then I'll rank those categories by using the numbers 1-8 (1 being the most confident and 8 being the least confident). Of those 3 categories, I'll combine the total and get the confidence number. Remember, the lower the number wins for each game.

Quarterbacks:
1. Brady
2. Rodgers
3. Manning
4. Brees
5. Flacco
6. Tebow
7. Yates
8. Smith

Defense:
1. Texans
2. 49ers
3. Ravens
4. Broncos
5. Giants
6. Saints
7. Packers
8. Patriots

Overall Team:
1. Saints
2. Ravens
3. 49ers
4. Patriots
5. Giants
6. Broncos
7. Packers
8. Texans

Saints (11) at 49ers (13)
Broncos (16) at Patriots (13)
Texans (16) at Ravens (10)
Giants (13) at Packers (16)

Results of the confidence picks suggest that the Saints, Patriots, Ravens and Giants will win over the weekend. However, I do believe that the Saints/49ers pick is the only pick I would change. I think the 49ers will win that game, it will be close.

Recap: NFC Wild Card - Lions vs Saints

Lions 28, Saints 45

Recapping my 4 Downs for the Lions/Saints game:

• 1st Down: Can Stafford keep up with Brees? Depends on which half were you watching. If you saw the 1st half, then you would say yes he can. But games are won in the 2nd half and Brees just out played the younger Stafford when it counted. Brees finished throwing for 33/43 for 466 and 3 TD's while his counterpart Stafford threw for 28/43 for 380, 3 TDs and 2 INT's. Advantage: Brees
• 2nd Down: Big Plays for the Defense: Which defense made the big plays in the game? Well this is the game in a nutshell: 2 Turnovers for the Lions which resulted in 0 points. 2 Turnovers for the Saints in which resulted in 14 points. Advantage: Saints
• 3rd Down: Containing Calvin Johnson: Well lets see Johnson's numbers:  12 catches for 211 yards and 2 TD's. Advantage: Megatron
• 4th Down: Lions D-Line vs Saints O-Line: 2 sacks and 2 fumbles in which if it wasn't for an inadvertent whistle, the Lions D-line would of scored a TD. Huge difference in the game. However the Saints O-line was able to create holes for the Saints RB's , which accounted for 3 TD's. Advantage: Saints O-line

What's Next: Saints will travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers for a showdown of former NFC West rivals.

4 Downs - NFC Wild Card: Lions vs Saints

Lions (10-6) vs Saints (13-3)

• 1st Down: Can Stafford keep up with Brees - Stafford will make his first start in the playoffs in this career, while Brees is wanting to come off of a huge disappointment from last season's wild card game in Seattle. These two faced off about a month ago in New Orleans with Stafford out playing Brees, statistically, but wasn't able to win the game. These two QB's can make each defense have a long night if their hot.
• 2nd Down: Which Defense will make the BIG play that turns this game around for their team - With both QB's capable of putting up 300+ yards against these defense, they can be in for a long night. However, if one of these defense can force one of these QB's into mistakes, this could be a spark for their team.
• 3rd Down: Can the Saints contain Calvin Johnson - This could be key for the Saints if they are able to contain and control Johnson. For the Lions, if Johnson has one of his big games, this could bode well for the Lions in their quest for an upset.
• 4th Down: Lions D-Line vs Saints O-Line - A month ago, Suh didn't not play in this game because of his 2-game suspension. If the Lions D-line can cause problems with the Saints O-line, Brees timing could be off which will play a huge advantage for the Lions. But if the Lions D-line can't pressure Brees and help out their secondary, then Brees and the Saints will have a field-day.

Confidence Pick: Saints

• QB: Stafford (5) vs Brees (2)
• Defense: Lions (5) vs Saints (6)
• Overall Team: Lions (5) vs Saints (1)
• Lions (15) vs Saints (9)

My Pick: Lions 24 vs Saints 34

Wild Card Confidence Picks

This year I'll be doing confidence picks for the NFL Playoffs. This will help out with my predictions in who will win or at least what kind of game it will turn out to be. I am using the Mike and Mike format, when picking the confidence number. This format is simple: I'll use 3 categories (Overall Team, Quarterback, and Defense) and then I'll rank those categories by using the numbers 1-8 (1 being the most confident and 8 being the least confident). Of those 3 categories, I'll combine the total and get the confidence number. Remember, the lower the number wins for each game.

Quarterbacks:
1. Roethlisberger
2. Brees
3. Manning
4. Ryan
5. Stafford
6. Yates
7. Dalton
8. Tebow

Defense:
1. Steelers
2. Texans
3. Giants
4. Bengals
5. Lions
6. Saints
7. Broncos
8. Falcons

Overall Team:
1. Saints
2. Steelers
3. Texans
4. Falcons
5. Lions
6. Giants
7. Bengals
8. Broncos


Bengals (18) at Texans (11)

Lions (15) at Saints (9)

Falcons (16) at Giants (12)

Steelers (4) at Broncos (23)

Results of the confidence pick shows that the Texans, Saints, Giants and Steelers will win over the weekend. I actually agree with the confidence picks, although I believe that the Bengals have a great opportunity to steal a game in Houston.